North west producers heard the latest research in soil, pasture and climate variability at a forum in Narrabri last week.
About 40 people attended the day which was funded by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), and supported by Local Land Services and NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI).
Senior research scientist with the NSW DPI, Dr Sean Murphy, presented findings about changing rainfall patterns. He used Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) rain records to show how patterns have changed in the last decade.
“If you look at the monthly rainfall since the year 2000 for our part of the world, the autumns are drier, and the springs are drier up until November and December, so this is the seed of hope,” he explained.
“September and October have been more hot and dry over the past decade, but then rainfall in November and December is well above average in the last 10 to 15 years.”
He believes eastern areas of Australia could be going into a historically drier period.
“Over the last century a rain pattern has formed, the first 50 years of the 1900s were drier, the second 50 years were wetter,” he said.
“The interesting thing is that since the year 2000 it’s gone back down again, so we may be going into that next 50 year period of drier conditions.”
Based on the BOMs rainfall records for Tamworth, dating back to 1889, Dr Murphy has been able to show how summer rainfall can indicate likely conditions for the coming year. He hopes to use his research to help farmers make better management decisions.
“Rainfall records are the most commonly kept, but perhaps the most poorly understood when used to manage our farming systems. Records show that when rainfall total for summer exceeds the average of 224 millimetres, there is a 70-80% chance that the year will be a good year, whereas if summer rainfall is below the average total then it’s the opposite, there is a high chance that the following 10-12 months will be poor.
“It’s forewarning, it’s not prediction in terms of yes this is going to be a bad year or a good year, but it’s forewarning so this is what history is indicating and hopefully gives us a bit more to the think about.”
Narrabri farmer Elizabeth Tomlinson said Dr Murphy’s summer rainfall rule made sense.
“I’ve lived here all my life and it always makes me nervous if we have a bad summer,” she said.
“I would think that the 224 millimetre mark is possibly a little bit different out here compared to Tamworth, as our evaporation would be higher, our temperatures and soil type are different too, but it’s still giving that message that if you don’t get worthwhile rainfall December, January, February, forget it.
“It’s going to be a good management tool to be able to decide whether we’re going to keep those older ewes for another year or get rid of them because we don’t want to put pressure on our pastures.”
Ms Tomlinson is moving into a new developmental stage on her farm, and is trying to keep up to date with the latest research.
“After some years of dormancy within the farm while my late partner was very ill, we’re now into a stage where we’re looking at changes we can make and also, my son’s going to come home to the farm so these sort of occasions are a great opportunity,” she said.
Ms Tomlinson did raise concerns about the concentration of research in areas where soil is more productive.
“There’s a lot of research being done, but not that much of it that’s relevant for people who are on the type of soils that are around Narrabri and other parts of NSW,” she explained.
“A lot of research seems to happen on the better clay soils, better quality pH soil, rather than the acidic soils, and there is a lot of acidic soil in Australia.”
Dr Murphy said the extent of their research was limited by funding.
“Unfortunately, doing quality research is expensive and to minimise the cost we try and do it as close as we can to our home base which is Tamworth. That doesn’t change the fact that there are lots of areas with need, where localised research would be good,” he added.